**Gent U23 3-1 RFC Seraing**
**What set this match apart:**
This match was more unusual than 57% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the attacking phase (54%) and the build-up (28%). A defining characteristic was the disparity in getting into dangerous areas: few shots inside the box were recorded in the match (17 in total, 26th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but RFC Seraing was clearly ahead with 14 to Gent U23's 3 (98th percentile of gaps). Furthermore, Gent U23 showed a distinct preference for patient build-up from the back, completing 301 passes in their own half compared to RFC Seraing's 120 (a +181 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps).
**How it played out:**
Despite the disparity in shots inside the box, both sides were involved in a high volume of clear-cut scoring opportunities, with 9 big chances in total (94th percentile of joint volume). RFC Seraing was ahead in this area, creating 6 big chances to Gent U23's 3 (92nd percentile of gaps). While Gent U23 preferred to keep the ball deep, they were also more active in the opponent's half, completing 174 passes to RFC Seraing's 85 (a +89 gap at the 76th percentile of gaps). RFC Seraing found more success on the flanks, recording 6 accurate crosses to Gent U23's 1 (91st percentile of gaps), and they also earned more corners, 6 to 2 (85th percentile of gaps). Defensively, RFC Seraing was more active in cutting passing lanes with 15 interceptions to Gent U23's 8 (89th percentile of gaps). On the ground, Gent U23 won more duels, 34 to 25 (85th percentile of gaps), in a match where few ground duels were won overall (59 in total, 19th percentile of joint volume).
**Verdict:**
The fair probabilities are Gent U23 win 19%, draw 33%, and RFC Seraing win 48%. The performances pointed toward an RFC Seraing win, but the actual result had only a 19% probability. With 4 shots on target each, the final score was a surprise given the statistical trends.
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