**Orense 3-2 Libertad**
**What set this match apart:**
This match was more unusual than 89% of matches, with the majority of that unusualness sitting in the attacking phase (53%). Both teams were involved in a high volume of clear-cut scoring opportunities, recording 12 big chances in total (99th percentile of joint volume). Orense was significantly more productive in these moments, creating 8 big chances to Libertad's 4 (98th percentile of gaps). Similarly, the teams generated a massive amount of shots inside the box, with 32 in total (98th percentile of joint volume), while Orense took 24 of those compared to just 8 for Libertad (99th percentile of gaps).
**How it played out:**
Orense also controlled the direct threat on goal, recording 13 shots on target to Libertad's 5 (98th percentile of gaps). While there were few shots from distance in the match (11 in total, 15th percentile of joint volume), Orense was clearly ahead with 10 to Libertad's 1 (98th percentile of gaps). On the flanks, Orense found more success with 13 accurate crosses to Libertad's 4 (98th percentile of gaps). Libertad, meanwhile, faced significant pressure, recording 36 clearances to Orense's 25 (72nd percentile of gaps) and 9 blocked shots to Orense's 2 (97th percentile of gaps). In terms of ball recovery, few tackles were made in the match (24 in total, 14th percentile of joint volume), but Libertad was clearly ahead with 16 to Orense's 8 (87th percentile of gaps). Conversely, few interceptions were recorded overall (14 in total, 15th percentile of joint volume), but Orense was clearly ahead with 10 to Libertad's 4 (90th percentile of gaps). Finally, in a match with few aerial duels won overall (25 in total, 30th percentile of joint volume), Orense was clearly ahead with 16 to Libertad's 9 (87th percentile of gaps).
**Verdict:**
The fair probabilities are Orense win 43%, draw 33%, and Libertad win 24%. The performances pointed to an Orense win and that is what happened, supported by their 8 big chances to Libertad's 4.
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