Uganda ضد Nigeria — Africa Cup of Nations

**Uganda 1-3 Nigeria**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (66% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking contrast appeared in the build-up, where few passes in their own half were recorded in the match (377 in total, 22nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Nigeria was clearly ahead with 290 to Uganda's 87 (+203, 99th percentile of gaps). Nigeria also bypassed the midfield more effectively, making 45 accurate long balls to Uganda's 18 (+27, 98th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Nigeria's direct approach translated into a significant advantage in the final third. While there were few shots on target in the match (7 in total, 26th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Nigeria was clearly ahead with 6 to Uganda's 1 (+5, 92nd percentile of gaps). This translated into a massive gap in clear-cut scoring opportunities, as Nigeria made 6 big chances to Uganda's 1 (+5, 98th percentile of gaps). On the other side, Uganda found success in the air, winning 13 aerial duels to Nigeria's 9 (+4, 69th percentile of gaps). Nigeria also won the one-on-one battles, recording 12 successful dribbles to Uganda's 5 (+7, 93rd percentile of gaps). Defensively, both sides were active in clearing the ball (39 in total, 79th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), with Uganda making 22 clearances to Nigeria's 17 (+5, 78th percentile of gaps). The game remained relatively low-intensity in terms of ball recovery, with few interceptions (9 in total, 9th percentile of joint volume) and few tackles (19 in total, 11th percentile of joint volume) recorded by either side.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Uganda win 12%, draw 37%, and Nigeria win 51%. The performances pointed to a Nigeria win (51%), and that is what happened. This was reflected in the final tally, where Nigeria secured 6 big chances and 6 shots on target compared to Uganda's 1 in each category.