Derby County ضد Middlesbrough — Championship

**Derby County 1-0 Middlesbrough**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (94% of matches were more unusual than this one). The slight atypicality was concentrated in the attacking phase, which accounted for 52% of the unusualness. Both teams created a high volume of clear-cut scoring opportunities, with 7 big chances in total (74th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). However, Middlesbrough were much more productive in this area, creating 5 big chances to Derby County's 2, a gap at the 97th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Middlesbrough were the more proactive side in the final third, recording 9 shots inside the box to Derby County's 4 (86th percentile of gaps) and taking 10 shots from distance compared to just 3 for the other side (97th percentile of gaps). While few passes were made in the opponent's half overall (340 in total, 23rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Middlesbrough was clearly ahead with 264 to Derby County's 76 (96th percentile of gaps). This was supported by a patient build-up from the back, as Middlesbrough completed 202 passes in their own half to Derby County's 101 (87th percentile of gaps). Derby County, meanwhile, were forced to defend deep and clear the ball under pressure, recording 36 clearances to Middlesbrough's 14 (96th percentile of gaps). They also won more aerial duels (14 to 11, 70th percentile of gaps) and made 18 tackles to Middlesbrough's 15 (72nd percentile of gaps). The pressure was sustained throughout, evidenced by 13 corners in total (82nd percentile of joint volume), with Middlesbrough taking 9 to Derby County's 4 (90th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Derby County win 30%, draw 29%, and Middlesbrough win 41%. The performances leaned towards a Middlesbrough win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. Despite Middlesbrough creating 5 big chances to Derby County's 2, the 1-0 scoreline remains a plausible outcome.