Mali ضد Tunisia — Africa Cup of Nations

**Mali 1-1 Tunisia**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 70% of matches were more unusual than this one. The most striking distinction lies in the build-up, where Tunisia was clearly ahead with 165 passes in their own half compared to Mali's 61, a +104 gap at the 88th percentile of gaps, despite few passes in their own half in the match (226 in total, 4th percentile of joint volume). Mali also won the physical battle on the ground, winning 44 ground duels to Tunisia's 29, a +15 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Tunisia maintained a significant territorial advantage, making 220 passes in the opponent's half to Mali's 44, a +176 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps, even though few passes in the opponent's half in the match were recorded (264 in total, 6th percentile of joint volume). This pressure translated into a high volume of corners, with 13 in total (90th percentile of joint volume), and Tunisia was clearly ahead with 9 to Mali's 4, a +5 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps. Mali responded by defending deep and getting the ball away, recording 27 clearances to Tunisia's 19, a +8 gap at the 83rd percentile of gaps, in a match with a high volume of clearances overall (46 in total, 90th percentile of joint volume). Mali also read the game well, winning 10 interceptions to Tunisia's 4, a +6 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps, in a match with few interceptions overall (14 in total, 19th percentile of joint volume). While few shots on target in the match were recorded (4 in total, 17th percentile of joint volume), Tunisia was clearly ahead with 3 to Mali's 1, a +2 gap at the 79th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Mali win 24%, draw 36%, and Tunisia win 40%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-1 draw is a reflection of a wide-open match where both sides had 1 big chance.