**Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 Oxford United**
**What set this match apart:**
This match was more unusual than 62% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the build-up (37%) and defending (35%). Oxford United was clearly ahead in direct play, completing 20 accurate long balls to Milton Keynes Dons' 12 (+8, 78th percentile of gaps), even though few accurate long balls were made in the match overall (32 in total, 2nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Conversely, Milton Keynes Dons were under significant pressure, recording 43 clearances to Oxford United's 24 (+19, 95th percentile of gaps) in a game where both teams did a lot of clearances (67 in total, 96th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).
**How it played out:**
Oxford United opted for a patient approach from the back, completing 205 passes in their own half compared to 115 by Milton Keynes Dons (+90, 84th percentile of gaps). While the game saw few shots from distance overall (4 in total, 6th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Oxford United was clearly ahead with 3 to Milton Keynes Dons' 1 (+2, 72nd percentile of gaps). Milton Keynes Dons found more success on the flanks, recording 5 accurate crosses to Oxford United's 2 (+3, 75th percentile of gaps), and they dominated the set-piece pressure with 10 corners to 4 (+6, 90th percentile of gaps). In the physical battle, Milton Keynes Dons won 38 ground duels to Oxford United's 32 (+6, 76th percentile of gaps). Both sides were involved in a high volume of clear-cut scoring opportunities, with 7 big chances in total (91st percentile of the two teams' joint volume), though Milton Keynes Dons had 5 to Oxford United's 2 (+3, 88th percentile of gaps).
**Verdict:**
The fair probabilities are Milton Keynes Dons win 68%, draw 25%, and Oxford United win 7%. The performances leaned towards a Milton Keynes Dons win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With 7 shots on target for Milton Keynes Dons compared to 3 for Oxford United, the draw remains a plausible outcome.
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