Inter ضد Napoli — Serie A

**Inter 2-2 Napoli**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (69% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking distinction lies in the build-up, where both teams combined for a massive 416 passes in the opponent's half (95th percentile of joint volume). However, Inter was much more active in this area, completing 267 passes compared to Napoli's 149, a +118 gap at the 83rd percentile of gaps. Conversely, Napoli was more patient in their own half, completing 257 passes to Inter's 153, a +104 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Inter showed a more aggressive defensive profile, winning 21 tackles to Napoli's 13, a +8 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps, and recording 10 interceptions to 6, a +4 gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps. On the offensive side, Inter was more successful at getting into dangerous areas, recording 10 shots inside the box to Napoli's 5, a moderate gap at the 76th percentile. While both sides created a high volume of big chances (5 in total, 70th percentile of joint volume), Napoli had a slight edge with 3 to Inter's 2, a gap at the 69th percentile. The match saw very little aerial threat, with only 4 accurate crosses in the match, but Napoli was clearly ahead with 3 to Inter's 1, a gap at the 73rd percentile. Similarly, there were few corners in the match, but Inter was clearly ahead with 4 to Napoli's 1, a gap at the 74th percentile. Inter also bypassed the midfield more frequently, as there were few accurate long balls in the match, but Inter was clearly ahead with 31 to Napoli's 18, a gap at the 85th percentile. Finally, there were few ground duels won in the match, but Inter was clearly ahead with 34 to Napoli's 24, a gap at the 88th percentile.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Inter win 40%, draw 27%, and Napoli win 33%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-2 draw is a reflection of a wide-open game where Napoli had 3 big chances to Inter's 2.