Lecce ضد Parma — Serie A

**Lecce 1-2 Parma**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (90% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking feature was the lack of direct threat on goal, with only 3 shots on target in total (Lecce 1, Parma 2), a volume at the 7th percentile of the two teams' joint volume. While the overall game was standard, the unusualness was primarily concentrated in defending (41%), followed by attack (28%) and build-up (20%).

**How it played out:** Parma was more successful in creating clear-cut scoring opportunities, recording 3 big chances to Lecce's 1, a gap at the 81st percentile. In terms of territorial control, few passes in the opponent's half occurred in the match, but Parma was clearly ahead with 149 to Lecce's 96, a gap at the 75th percentile. Parma also showed more patience in their own half, completing 198 passes compared to Lecce's 117, a gap at the 82nd percentile. Lecce found more success down the flanks, making 5 accurate crosses to Parma's 2, a gap at the 75th percentile. Defensively, both sides were under pressure, recording 55 clearances in total (89th percentile of joint volume), with Lecce making 35 to Parma's 20, a gap at the 91st percentile. Lecce also threw more bodies in front of shots, recording 4 blocks to Parma's 2, a gap at the 85th percentile. The physical battle on the ground was intense and balanced, with both teams winning 44 ground duels each, a joint volume at the 93rd percentile.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Lecce win 40%, draw 34%, and Parma win 26%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-2 result is not surprising given that Parma had 3 big chances to Lecce's 1.