Nagoya Grampus ضد Shimizu S-Pulse — J1 League

**Nagoya Grampus 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (85% of matches were more unusual than this one). The slight atypicality was concentrated in the build-up, defending, and duels. Nagoya Grampus stood out in the physical battle, winning 46 ground duels to Shimizu S-Pulse's 27, a +19 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. They also dominated the tackling, recording 22 tackles to 12, a +10 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Nagoya Grampus established a physical presence by winning 25 aerial duels to 17, a +8 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps, while also recording 9 successful dribbles to 4, a +5 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps. They were patient in their own half, completing 203 passes to 109, a +94 gap at the 83rd percentile of gaps. Shimizu S-Pulse, by contrast, focused on territorial control in the opponent's half, completing 186 passes to 126, a +60 gap at the 77th percentile of gaps. Both sides faced significant pressure, evidenced by a joint volume of 52 clearances at the 90th percentile of joint volume. Nagoya Grampus also found more success in the final third, creating 2 big chances to 0, a +2 gap at the 74th percentile of gaps, and taking 6 shots from distance to 2, a +4 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Nagoya Grampus win 39%, draw 43%, and Shimizu S-Pulse win 18%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-0 result is not surprising, as both sides recorded 3 shots on target.