Monterrey ضد Chivas — Liga MX

**Monterrey 2-3 Chivas**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (95% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the attacking phase (36%), followed by defending (25%) and build-up (24%). Both teams were highly active in the final third, recording 23 shots inside the box (96th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Monterrey took 14 of those shots to Chivas's 9, a gap at the 76th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Monterrey exerted significant territorial control, completing 239 passes in the opponent's half compared to Chivas's 105, a +134 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps. This pressure translated into a high volume of corners, with Monterrey taking 9 to Chivas's 4, a +5 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps. Monterrey also looked to find space outside the area, recording 8 shots from distance to Chivas's 3, a +5 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps. In terms of direct threat, Monterrey was more active with 8 shots on target to Chivas's 5, a +3 gap at the 79th percentile of gaps. Defensively, few interceptions were recorded in the match (10 in total, 9th percentile of joint volume), but Monterrey was clearly ahead with 6 to Chivas's 4. Conversely, few blocked shots (defending) were recorded in the match, but Chivas was clearly ahead with 4 to Monterrey's 0. Monterrey also won more ground duels (27 to 23, a +4 gap at the 69th percentile of gaps) and more successful dribbles (5 to 3, a +2 gap at the 67th percentile of gaps) in a game where few of both occurred.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Monterrey win 44%, draw 27%, and Chivas win 29%. The performances leaned towards a Monterrey win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With Monterrey creating 3 big chances to Chivas's 2, the narrow margin reflects a closely contested battle.