**Guaraní 1-1 2 de Mayo**
**What set this match apart:**
A fairly ordinary match with a few distinctive traits (57% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the build-up, followed by defending, attack, and duels. There were few accurate long balls in the match, but 2 de Mayo was clearly ahead with 37 to Guaraní's 10 (99th percentile of gaps). Conversely, there were few corners in the match, but Guaraní was clearly ahead with 5 to 2 de Mayo's 1 (81st percentile of gaps).
**How it played out:**
Guaraní showed a greater ability to penetrate the final third, recording 11 shots inside the box to 2 de Mayo's 6 (76th percentile of gaps) and creating 2 big chances to 0 (82nd percentile of gaps). They also won more aerial duels, 17 to 10 (87th percentile of gaps), and recorded 5 more tackles than their opponents (82nd percentile of gaps). 2 de Mayo, meanwhile, focused on territorial control, recording 168 passes in the opponent's half to Guaraní's 97 (80th percentile of gaps). This pressure on the other side resulted in 2 de Mayo making 26 clearances to Guaraní's 13 (76th percentile of gaps). Guaraní also faced more pressure, recording 3 blocked shots compared to 1 for 2 de Mayo (85th percentile of gaps).
**Verdict:**
The fair probabilities are Guaraní win 42%, draw 33%, and 2 de Mayo win 25%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-1 draw is a reflection of a wide-open match where Guaraní had 2 big chances to 2 de Mayo's 0.
هذا التحليل مُولَّد بنموذج مطوَّر داخليًا وقد يحتوي على أخطاء · تجريبي
