**Iraq 2-1 Bolivia**
**What set this match apart:**
This was a fairly ordinary match with a few distinctive traits (this match was more unusual than 69% of matches). The unusualness was primarily driven by the defensive actions and the build-up phases. Bolivia exerted significant pressure in the final third, recording 16 corners to Iraq's 2, a +14 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. Conversely, Iraq was forced into a deep defensive stance, recording 47 clearances to Bolivia's 7, a +40 gap at the 100th percentile of gaps.
**How it played out:**
Bolivia sought to break through the lines with a variety of methods, including 11 shots from distance to Iraq's 2, a +9 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. They also won 37 ground duels to Iraq's 29, a +8 gap at the 81st percentile of gaps, and were clearly ahead in successful dribbles with 8 to Iraq's 2, a +6 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps, in a match with few successful dribbles overall (10 in total, 12th percentile). Iraq responded with a physical presence in the air, winning 19 aerial duels to Bolivia's 8, a +11 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. While there were few passes in their own half in the match, Bolivia was clearly ahead with 173 to Iraq's 84, a +89 gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps. Iraq also managed to win the ball back through 17 tackles to Bolivia's 10, a +7 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps, and were clearly ahead in interceptions with 8 to Bolivia's 3, a +5 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps, in a match with few interceptions overall (11 in total, 8th percentile).
**Verdict:**
The fair probabilities are Iraq win 33%, draw 42%, and Bolivia win 25%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Despite Bolivia recording 6 shots on target to Iraq's 3, the 2-1 scoreline reflects a wide-open contest.
هذا التحليل مُولَّد بنموذج مطوَّر داخليًا وقد يحتوي على أخطاء · تجريبي
