Palmeiras ضد Grêmio — Brasileirão

**Palmeiras 2-1 Grêmio**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (74% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking feature was the volume of long-range attempts, with both teams recording 16 shots from distance (97th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), and Palmeiras making 9 to Grêmio's 7 (69th percentile of gaps). While the teams were level in shots on target (Palmeiras 4, Grêmio 5; 9 in total, 73rd percentile of joint volume), they struggled to create clear-cut scoring opportunities, recording 0 big chances each (8th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** Palmeiras exerted significant territorial control, completing 234 passes in the opponent's half compared to Grêmio's 100 (86th percentile of gaps), and they were clearly ahead with 7 shots inside the box to Grêmio's 3. This pressure was reflected in the corner count, where Palmeiras took 8 to Grêmio's 2 (91st percentile of gaps). Grêmio, meanwhile, looked to bypass the midfield more directly; they made 22 accurate long balls to Palmeiras's 18 (66th percentile of gaps), even though few accurate long balls were recorded in the match overall (40 in total, 12th percentile of joint volume). The physical battle was contested on the ground, with Palmeiras winning 44 ground duels to Grêmio's 36 (83rd percentile of gaps), while Grêmio was clearly ahead in the air, winning 9 aerial duels to Palmeiras's 6 (68th percentile of gaps). Both sides were successful in one-on-one situations, recording 22 successful dribbles in total (87th percentile of joint volume), with Palmeiras making 14 to Grêmio's 8 (90th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Palmeiras win 28%, draw 40%, and Grêmio win 32%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-1 scoreline reflects a wide-open match where both sides were level on big chances but split the shots on target 4-5.