Middelfart ضد AaB — Danish 1st Division

**Middelfart 2-5 AaB**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 75% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by the attacking and defending phases. AaB dominated the creation of clear-cut scoring opportunities, recording 4 big chances to Middelfart's 0, a gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. Despite this, both sides were heavily involved in the action, recording 22 shots inside the box (95th percentile of joint volume) and 14 shots on target (94th percentile of joint volume). The defensive pressure was also extreme, with 59 clearances recorded in the match (90th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** AaB maintained a significant territorial advantage, completing 239 passes in the opponent's half compared to Middelfart's 166, a +73 gap at the 81st percentile of gaps. While both teams were active in the final third, AaB was more effective at finding the target, recording 9 shots on target to Middelfart's 5, a gap at the 89th percentile of gaps. Middelfart attempted to bypass the midfield more frequently, recording 26 accurate long balls to AaB's 14, a +12 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps, even though few accurate long balls were recorded in the match overall (40 in total, 7th percentile of joint volume). Defensively, Middelfart was under more pressure, recording 39 clearances to AaB's 20, a +19 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps. AaB was more successful at reading the game, recording 11 interceptions to Middelfart's 3, a +8 gap at the 92nd percentile of gaps, in a match with few interceptions overall (14 in total, 8th percentile of joint volume). Ground duels were sparse, with both sides winning 28 each.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Middelfart win 21%, draw 29%, and AaB win 50%. The performances pointed to a AaB win and that is what happened, supported by AaB's 9 shots on target to Middelfart's 5 and their 4 big chances to 0.