Chivas ضد Pumas — Liga MX

**Chivas 2-2 Pumas**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (61% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the attack (39% of the unusualness), followed by duels (28% of the unusualness). Despite the lack of overall variance, Chivas was clearly ahead in shots from distance, recording 12 to Pumas' 1 (+11, 99th percentile of gaps) in a match with few shots from distance overall (13 in total, 15th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Chivas also dominated the direct threat, making 12 shots on target to Pumas' 2 (+10, 99th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Chivas created the most clear-cut scoring opportunities, recording 6 big chances to Pumas' 0 (+6, 97th percentile of gaps). They also found more ways to pressure the box, recording 8 corners to Pumas' 1 (+7, 94th percentile of gaps) in a match with few corners overall (9 in total, 15th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Chivas opted for a patient build-up from the back, completing 208 passes in their own half compared to Pumas' 103 (+105, 86th percentile of gaps). Pumas, meanwhile, were more active in winning the physical battle on the ground, winning 32 ground duels to Chivas' 22 (+10, 87th percentile of gaps) in a match with few ground duels won overall (54 in total, 10th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Pumas also led in reading the game, recording 7 interceptions to Chivas' 4 (+3, 67th percentile of gaps) in a match with few interceptions overall (11 in total, 11th percentile). Defensively, Pumas were under more pressure, making 40 clearances to Chivas' 15 (+25, 94th percentile of gaps) in a match with many clearances overall (55 in total, 76th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Chivas win 60%, draw 28%, and Pumas win 12%. The performances leaned towards a Chivas win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With Chivas creating 6 big chances to Pumas' 0, the draw remains a plausible outcome.