Altach ضد Grazer AK — Austrian Bundesliga

**Altach 1-0 Grazer AK**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (94% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the build-up (43%) and defending (27%). Both teams bypassed the midfield frequently, completing 72 accurate long balls in total, a volume at the 93rd percentile of joint volume. Grazer AK was ahead in this area with 38 to Altach's 34, a +4 gap at the 66th percentile of gaps. Furthermore, Grazer AK was clearly ahead in the few corners in the match, recording 3 to Altach's 0, a +3 gap at the 79th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Grazer AK showed a more patient approach from the back, completing 211 passes in their own half compared to Altach's 121, a +90 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps. Altach, meanwhile, focused on winning the ball back through physical challenges, recording 17 tackles to Grazer AK's 11, a +6 gap at the 85th percentile of gaps. This physical presence extended to the air, where Altach won 18 aerial duels to Grazer AK's 13, a +5 gap at the 80th percentile of gaps. Defensively, both sides were busy clearing the ball, with 51 clearances in total at the 87th percentile of joint volume, and Altach making 28 to Grazer AK's 23. In the final third, Grazer AK was more threatening, recording 5 shots on target to Altach's 2, a +3 gap at the 83rd percentile of gaps. However, both sides struggled to break the deadlock, with only 8 shots inside the box in total, a volume at the 15th percentile of joint volume.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Altach win 34%, draw 46%, and Grazer AK win 20%. The performances leaned towards a draw, but the actual result was far from unlikely. While Altach created 2 big chances to Grazer AK's 0, the 1-0 scoreline remains a plausible outcome.