Pau ضد Guingamp — Ligue 2

**Pau 2-1 Guingamp**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (97% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was concentrated in the build-up, where both teams were highly active in the opponent's half with 449 passes in total (96th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). However, Pau was much more active in this area, completing 301 passes compared to Guingamp's 148 (89th percentile of gaps). At the other end, both sides were also very active in their own half with 450 passes in total (93rd percentile of joint volume), but Guingamp was more patient here, making 243 passes to Pau's 207 (67th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Pau exerted sustained pressure near the opponent's goal, evidenced by 7 corners to Guingamp's 1 (few corners in the match, but Pau was clearly ahead; 91st percentile of gaps). This pressure was complemented by a more direct approach, as Pau also made 5 accurate crosses to Guingamp's 1 (few accurate crosses in the match, but Pau was clearly ahead; 82nd percentile of gaps). While both teams bypassed the midfield with 66 accurate long balls in total (85th percentile of joint volume), Pau held a slight edge with 36 to 30 (68th percentile of gaps). Guingamp, meanwhile, spent more time defending deep, making 27 clearances to Pau's 9 (few clearances in the match, but Guingamp was clearly ahead; 86th percentile of gaps). Despite the territorial control, the game remained tight in the final third: there were few shots inside the box in the match (8 in total, 13th percentile of joint volume) and few shots from distance (5 in total, 20th percentile of joint volume). In the end, there were few shots on target in the match, but Pau was clearly ahead with 3 to 1 (69th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Pau win 36%, draw 36%, and Guingamp win 28%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-1 scoreline reflects a match where both sides were wide open, despite Pau having 3 shots on target to Guingamp's 1.