Start ضد Molde — Eliteserien

**Start 1-1 Molde**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 73% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (35%) and duels (28%). The physical nature of the contest is highlighted by a massive disparity in aerial dominance: Molde won 26 aerial duels to Start's 14, a +12 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. Conversely, Start was much more aggressive in winning the ball back, recording 24 tackles to Molde's 13, a +11 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. Both sides were also heavily involved in a physical battle on the ground, with 77 ground duels won in total (74th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** Molde exerted significant territorial control, completing 257 passes in the opponent's half compared to Start's 155, a +102 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps. This pressure was sustained near the goal, as Molde earned 6 corners to Start's 2, a +4 gap at the 85th percentile of gaps. Molde also found more success down the flanks, recording 7 accurate crosses to Start's 5, a +2 gap at the 73rd percentile of gaps. While few shots from distance were taken in the match, Molde was clearly ahead with 3 to Start's 1, a +2 gap at the 72nd percentile of gaps. Defensively, both sides were proactive in reading the game, with 22 interceptions in total (71st percentile of joint volume), and Molde led 13 to 9, a +4 gap at the 74th percentile of gaps. There were few successful dribbles in the match, but Molde was clearly ahead with 5 to Start's 3, a +2 gap at the 66th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Start win 38%, draw 34%, and Molde win 28%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-1 draw is a reflection of a wide-open game where both sides had 3 and 2 big chances respectively.