Barcelona SC ضد Mushuc Runa — Ecuadorian Serie A

**Barcelona SC 2-1 Mushuc Runa**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 76% of matches were more unusual than this one. The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the build-up (40%) and the attack (25%). Despite a low volume of shots on target in the match (8 in total, 18th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Barcelona SC was clearly ahead with 7 to Mushuc Runa's 1, a gap at the 94th percentile. A similar disparity appeared in the build-up, where Barcelona SC was clearly ahead with 198 passes in their own half compared to Mushuc Runa's 86, a gap at the 88th percentile.

**How it played out:** Barcelona SC maintained a higher level of pressure near the opponent's goal, recording 9 corners to Mushuc Runa's 0, a gap at the 97th percentile. This pressure was reflected in the attacking numbers: few shots inside the box in the match (10 in total, 7th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Barcelona SC was clearly ahead with 8 to Mushuc Runa's 2, a gap at the 81st percentile. They also created more clear-cut scoring opportunities, with few big chances in the match (5 in total, 13th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Barcelona SC was clearly ahead with 4 to Mushuc Runa's 1, a gap at the 92nd percentile. Mushuc Runa responded by defending deep and getting the ball away under pressure, making 36 clearances to Barcelona SC's 10, a gap at the 94th percentile. They also won more contested moments on the ground, with few ground duels won in the match (53 in total, 6th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Mushuc Runa was clearly ahead with 33 to Barcelona SC's 20, a gap at the 93rd percentile. Both sides utilized the flanks, recording 11 accurate crosses in total (71st percentile of the two teams' joint volume), while direct play remained limited with few accurate long balls from either team (42 in total, 18th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**Verdict:** The performances leaned towards a draw (51%), but the actual result was far from unlikely (42%). The fair probabilities are Barcelona SC win 42%, draw 51%, and Mushuc Runa win 7%.