Brest ضد Lens — Ligue 1

**Brest 3-3 Lens**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (64% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the build-up and the attack. Lens was significantly more active in the final third, recording 17 shots inside the box compared to Brest's 4, a +13 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. They also created 5 more big chances than the other side (5 to 0), a gap at the 98th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Lens controlled the territory and the flanks to create these opportunities, completing 292 passes in the opponent's half to Brest's 98, a +194 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. This was supported by 13 accurate crosses from Lens compared to just 2 from Brest, a +11 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. While there were few corners in the match, Lens was clearly ahead with 6 to 0. Brest, meanwhile, focused on a physical and defensive game, winning 19 aerial duels to Lens's 12, a +7 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps. They also recorded 31 clearances to Lens's 19, a +12 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps, while making 14 interceptions to Lens's 10, a +4 gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps. Lens still found ways to strike from distance, recording 8 attempts to Brest's 2, a +6 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Brest win 21%, draw 34%, and Lens win 45%. The performances leaned towards a Lens win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With Lens recording 7 shots on target to Brest's 3, the 3-3 draw remains a plausible outcome.