Karvina ضد Pardubice — Czech First League

**Karvina 1-2 Pardubice**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (96% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking contrast appeared in long-range attempts, where few shots from distance were recorded in the match (5 in total, 8th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Karvina was clearly ahead with 4 to Pardubice's 1 (77th percentile of gaps). Conversely, Karvina was clearly ahead in patient build-up from the back, completing 208 passes in their own half compared to Pardubice's 90 (118 more, 89th percentile of gaps), even though few passes in their own half were made in the match overall (298 in total, 24th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** Pardubice was more effective at getting into dangerous areas, recording 11 shots inside the box to Karvina's 7 (82nd percentile of gaps) in a game with a high joint volume of 18 (79th percentile). This translated into more clear-cut scoring opportunities, as Pardubice created 3 big chances to Karvina's 2 (83rd percentile of gaps) out of 5 total (76th percentile of joint volume). Defensively, Pardubice was more active in reading the game and winning the ball back, recording 15 interceptions to Karvina's 9 (85th percentile of gaps) and 21 tackles to 16 (75th percentile of gaps). Karvina, meanwhile, had more bodies thrown in front of shots with 3 blocks to Pardubice's 2 (77th percentile of gaps). Both sides were equally successful in beating opponents one-on-one, recording 10 successful dribbles each (86th percentile of joint volume). The match was also combative on the ground, with 78 ground duels won in total (76th percentile of joint volume), and Pardubice won 43 to Karvina's 35 (82nd percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Karvina win 23%, draw 39%, and Pardubice win 38%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-2 result is not surprising, as Pardubice had 5 shots on target to Karvina's 3.