Chapecoense ضد Botafogo — Copa do Brasil

**Chapecoense 2-0 Botafogo**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (63% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking distinction lies in the attacking flanks, where both teams recorded a high volume of accurate crosses (20 in total, 99th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Botafogo led with 15 to Chapecoense's 5, a +10 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. While the build-up was the primary source of unusualness (48%), the game remained largely conventional in its defensive and duel phases.

**How it played out:** Botafogo exerted significant territorial control, completing 230 passes in the opponent's half compared to Chapecoense's 86, a +144 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps. This pressure was supported by a patient build-up from the back, with Botafogo making 215 passes in their own half to Chapecoense's 125, a +90 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps. Despite this, Chapecoense was forced to defend deep and clear the ball under pressure, recording 42 clearances to Botafogo's 14, a +28 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. In the final third, Botafogo was more direct, making 19 shots inside the box to Chapecoense's 8, a +11 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps, and finishing with 8 shots on target to Chapecoense's 3, a +5 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps. The physical battle saw Chapecoense win 18 aerial duels to Botafogo's 12, a +6 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps, while Botafogo held a moderate edge on the ground with 34 wins to Chapecoense's 29, a +5 gap at the 71st percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Chapecoense win 42%, draw 36%, and Botafogo win 22%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Botafogo created 3 big chances to Chapecoense's 1, yet the 2-0 result remains a standard outcome for such a wide-open contest.