Vitória ضد Flamengo — Copa do Brasil

**Vitória 2-0 Flamengo**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 72% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (53%) and attack (29%). The most striking contrast lies in territorial control: few passes in the opponent's half were recorded in the match (434 in total, 4th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Flamengo was clearly ahead with 381 to Vitória's 53, a +328 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. Defensively, Vitória was under significant pressure, recording 11 blocked shots to Flamengo's 1, a +10 gap at the 100th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Flamengo exerted constant pressure on the final third, evidenced by 8 more corners than Vitória (8 to 1, 96th percentile of gaps) and 11 more accurate crosses (11 to 0, 99th percentile of gaps). While few shots inside the box were recorded in the match (17 in total, 12th percentile of joint volume), Flamengo was clearly ahead with 15 to Vitória's 2, a gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. This pressure translated into clear-cut scoring opportunities, as Flamengo created 4 more big chances than Vitória (4 to 0, 97th percentile of gaps). Despite the low volume of accurate long balls in the match (32 in total, 2nd percentile of joint volume), Flamengo was clearly ahead with 19 to Vitória's 13, a +6 gap at the 73rd percentile of gaps. Vitória responded by defending deep and getting the ball away, recording 40 clearances to Flamengo's 18, a +22 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Vitória win 24%, draw 31%, and Flamengo win 45%. The performances pointed toward a Flamengo win, but the actual result had only a 24% probability. With 4 big chances for Flamengo and 0 for Vitória, the scoreline was a surprise given the statistical weight of the attacking pressure.