Chivas ضد Cruz Azul — Liga MX

**Chivas 1-2 Cruz Azul**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 70% of matches were more unusual than this one. The primary characteristic was a high volume of direct threats, as both teams recorded 15 shots on target (Chivas 7, Cruz Azul 8), a figure at the 98th percentile of the two teams' joint volume. This was mirrored by a high volume of long-range attempts, with 13 shots from distance (Chivas 7, Cruz Azul 6) reaching the 91st percentile of joint volume. While the attacking output was high, the build-up and defending also contributed to the match's profile, with 15 corners (Chivas 8, Cruz Azul 7) at the 97th percentile of joint volume.

**How it played out:** Chivas utilized a more direct approach to bypass the midfield, recording 35 accurate long balls compared to Cruz Azul's 18, a gap at the 92nd percentile. This directness was complemented by Chivas being clearly ahead in the opponent's half, with 153 passes to Cruz Azul's 95, despite a low overall volume of 248 passes in that area. Cruz Azul, however, faced more pressure and was forced to defend deep, recording 39 clearances to Chivas's 16, a gap at the 92nd percentile. The physical battle was won in the air by Chivas, who won 25 aerial duels to Cruz Azul's 15, a gap at the 94th percentile. Both sides were equally restrained in one-on-one situations, with only 5 successful dribbles recorded in the match. In the final third, both sides created 3 big chances (76th percentile of joint volume), but Cruz Azul had the edge with 2 to Chivas's 1.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Chivas win 13%, draw 39%, and Cruz Azul win 48%. The performances pointed to a Cruz Azul win and that is what happened, with Cruz Azul creating 2 big chances to Chivas's 1.