FBC Melgar ضد Alianza Atlético — Peruvian Liga 1

**FBC Melgar 3-1 Alianza Atlético**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 81% of matches, with the unusualness primarily driven by the attacking phase (46%) and build-up (27%). The disparity in getting into dangerous areas was stark: few shots inside the box were recorded in the match (15 in total, 1st percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet FBC Melgar was clearly ahead with 15 to Alianza Atlético's 0 (99th percentile of gaps). A similar pattern emerged regarding clear-cut scoring opportunities: few big chances were in the match (6 in total, 16th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but FBC Melgar was clearly ahead with 6 to Alianza Atlético's 0 (99th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** FBC Melgar maintained a significant territorial advantage, completing 290 passes in the opponent's half compared to Alianza Atlético's 123 (91st percentile of gaps), even though the joint volume of such passes was high (413 in total, 87th percentile). While FBC Melgar controlled the middle, Alianza Atlético attempted to bypass it with 23 accurate long balls to FBC Melgar's 14 (81st percentile of gaps), despite few accurate long balls being in the match (37 in total, 5th percentile). FBC Melgar also found more success on the flanks, as few accurate crosses were in the match (7 in total, 8th percentile), but FBC Melgar was clearly ahead with 7 to Alianza Atlético's 0 (94th percentile of gaps). Alianza Atlético faced more pressure, as few clearances were in the match (41 in total, 22nd percentile), but Alianza Atlético was clearly ahead with 33 to FBC Melgar's 8 (94th percentile of gaps). FBC Melgar won more ground duels (33 to 26, 80th percentile of gaps) and made 12 more tackles than the other side (23 to 11, 97th percentile of gaps). Finally, few successful dribbles were in the match (10 in total, 20th percentile), but Alianza Atlético was clearly ahead with 7 to FBC Melgar's 3 (80th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are FBC Melgar win 53%, draw 22%, and Alianza Atlético win 25%. The performances pointed to a FBC Melgar win and that is what happened, supported by a 7 to 3 edge in shots on target.