Deportivo Cuenca ضد Emelec — Ecuadorian Serie A

**Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 Emelec**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 80% of matches were more unusual than this one. The most striking distinction was in the build-up, where both teams produced a high volume of corners, 16 in total (88th percentile of joint volume), but Deportivo Cuenca dominated this area with 12 to Emelec's 4 (a +8 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps). While both sides were active in the final third, Emelec was more effective at creating direct threats, recording 5 shots on target to Deportivo Cuenca's 2 (83rd percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Deportivo Cuenca exerted significant territorial control, completing 172 passes in the opponent's half compared to Emelec's 97 (a +75 gap at the 72nd percentile of gaps). Despite this, the game was played with a lot of long-range attempts, with both sides recording 7 each (14 in total, 94th percentile of joint volume). Emelec looked to bypass the midfield frequently, completing 34 accurate long balls to Deportivo Cuenca's 29 (70th percentile of gaps). On the flanks, few accurate crosses were recorded in the match (7 in total, 20th percentile of joint volume), but Deportivo Cuenca was clearly ahead with 6 to Emelec's 1 (87th percentile of gaps). Defensively, both sides were under constant pressure, evidenced by a high volume of clearances (53 in total, 88th percentile of joint volume) and blocked shots (8 in total, 73rd percentile of joint volume), with Emelec recording 6 blocked shots to Deportivo Cuenca's 2 (84th percentile of gaps). In the physical battle on the ground, few ground duels were won in the match (48 in total, 4th percentile of joint volume), but Deportivo Cuenca was clearly ahead with 26 to Emelec's 22 (69th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Deportivo Cuenca win 23%, draw 43%, and Emelec win 34%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-1 scoreline reflects a wide-open contest where Emelec had 5 shots on target to Deportivo Cuenca's 2.