**The Strongest 1-1 Aurora**
**What set this match apart:**
This match was more unusual than 54% of matches. The primary source of this atypicality was the attacking output, which accounted for 48% of the unusualness. Both teams produced a high volume of shots on target, with The Strongest recording 7 and Aurora 8, a joint volume of 15 that sits at the 98th percentile. Furthermore, the teams were equally prolific from distance, recording 10 shots each for a total of 20, which ranks at the 99th percentile of their joint volume.
**How it played out:**
Aurora was more effective at creating clear-cut scoring opportunities, recording 3 big chances compared to 0 for The Strongest, a gap at the 94th percentile. This was supported by Aurora getting into dangerous areas more frequently, with 10 shots inside the box to The Strongest's 6, a gap at the 82nd percentile. The build-up was defined by direct play, as both sides completed a high volume of accurate long balls (71 in total, 92nd percentile of joint volume), with Aurora making 38 to The Strongest's 33, a gap at the 70th percentile. In terms of defensive reading, The Strongest recorded 11 interceptions to Aurora's 7, a gap at the 82nd percentile. The physical side of the game was notably quiet, with very few aerial duels won by either side (4 and 5 respectively, 2nd percentile of joint volume) and few successful dribbles in the match, but Aurora was clearly ahead with 3 to The Strongest's 1, a gap at the 66th percentile.
**Verdict:**
The fair probabilities are The Strongest win 22%, draw 37%, and Aurora win 41%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-1 draw is a reflection of a wide-open game where Aurora had 3 big chances to The Strongest's 0.
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