Guingamp ضد Boulogne — Ligue 2

**Guingamp 1-0 Boulogne**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (95% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking feature was the patient build-up from the back, with both teams completing 454 passes in their own half (82nd percentile of joint volume). Guingamp was significantly more active in this area, recording 309 passes to Boulogne's 145, a +164 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. Direct play also played a role, as both sides combined for 64 accurate long balls (70th percentile of joint volume), with Guingamp making 41 to Boulogne's 23, a +18 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Guingamp was more effective at penetrating the final third, recording 11 shots inside the box to Boulogne's 4, a +7 gap at the 85th percentile of gaps. This translated into clear-cut scoring opportunities, as Guingamp created 4 big chances compared to 0 for Boulogne, a +4 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps. Boulogne, meanwhile, looked to find space by taking 8 shots from distance to Guingamp's 3, a +5 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps. While Guingamp had a +4 edge in accurate crosses (6 to 2, 82nd percentile of gaps), the direct threat on goal remained limited, with only 5 shots on target recorded in total (27th percentile of joint volume). Defensively, the game was played with few tackles from either side (22 in total, 15th percentile of joint volume). In terms of one-on-one situations, there were few successful dribbles in the match, but Guingamp was clearly ahead with 8 to Boulogne's 2, a +6 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Guingamp win 36%, draw 46%, and Boulogne win 18%. The performances leaned towards a draw, but the actual result was far from unlikely. Guingamp secured the win despite having only 3 shots on target to Boulogne's 2.