Vancouver FC ضد Pacific FC — Canadian Premier League

**Vancouver FC 1-1 Pacific FC**

**What set this match apart:** A very typical match: only small details set it apart (62% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking contrast in build-up was the patient play from the back, with both teams completing 472 passes in their own half (96th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), while Pacific FC made 32 more than Vancouver FC (252 to 220, 65th percentile of gaps). Conversely, Vancouver FC was clearly ahead in direct play, completing 35 accurate long balls to Pacific FC's 17 (+18, 93rd percentile of gaps) in a match with few accurate long balls overall (52 in total, 29th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**How it played out:** Pacific FC exerted significant territorial control, completing 241 passes in the opponent's half compared to Vancouver FC's 109 (+132, 91st percentile of gaps). This pressure forced both sides to defend deep, resulting in 46 clearances (79th percentile of joint volume) and 28 interceptions (92nd percentile of joint volume) with no real difference between them. Vancouver FC looked to exploit the flanks, making 6 accurate crosses to Pacific FC's 2 (+4, 82nd percentile of gaps). In the final third, both teams were active, recording 19 shots inside the box (87th percentile of joint volume) and 8 blocked shots (88th percentile of joint volume). While Pacific FC was clearly ahead in beating opponents one-on-one, completing 9 successful dribbles to Vancouver FC's 2 (+7, 93rd percentile of gaps) in a match with few successful dribbles overall (11 in total, 11th percentile), they only managed 4 shots on target to Vancouver FC's 2 (+2, 75th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Vancouver FC win 23%, draw 24%, and Pacific FC win 53%. The performances pointed to a Pacific FC win, but the actual result had only a 24% probability. With 4 shots on target for Pacific FC against 2 for Vancouver FC, the draw was a narrow escape for the home side.