Watford ضد Southampton — Championship

**Watford 2-1 Southampton**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 62% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by defending, which accounted for 54% of the atypicality. Watford was under significant pressure, making 47 clearances to Southampton's 11, a +36 gap at the 100th percentile of gaps. Both sides were also heavily involved in defensive actions, throwing bodies in front of shots to record 13 blocks in total, a volume at the 99th percentile of joint volume.

**How it played out:** The attacking output was remarkably balanced, with both teams recording 11 shots inside the box each, a joint volume at the 96th percentile. While the volume of shots was even, Southampton was more successful in creating clear-cut opportunities, recording 3 big chances to Watford's 1, a +2 gap at the 74th percentile of gaps. In terms of territorial control, there were few passes in the opponent's half in the match, but Southampton was clearly ahead with 272 to Watford's 77, a +195 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. Defensively, Watford was more active in cutting passing lanes, making 8 interceptions to Southampton's 3, a +5 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps, in a match with few interceptions overall (11 in total, 6th percentile). The physical battle in the air was also skewed, as Watford won 17 aerial duels to Southampton's 7, a +10 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps, in a match with few aerial duels won overall (24 in total, 21st percentile). Both sides remained active in winning the ball back through direct challenges, recording 37 tackles in total, a volume at the 80th percentile of joint volume.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Watford win 48%, draw 36%, and Southampton win 16%. The performances pointed to a Watford win and that is what happened. This was supported by Watford's 4 shots on target compared to Southampton's 3, despite Southampton having more big chances.