Abha ضد Al Khaleej — Saudi Pro League

**Abha 1-1 Al Khaleej**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 74% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by the attacking phase (44% of the unusualness). The most striking contrast appeared in defensive pressure, where Abha made 4 blocked shots to Al Khaleej's 1, a +3 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps. The physical battle was also distinct, as Abha won 27 ground duels to Al Khaleej's 20, a +7 gap at the 80th percentile of gaps, despite a very low joint volume of only 47 in the match (3rd percentile).

**How it played out:** Abha exerted significant territorial control, making 205 passes in the opponent's half compared to Al Khaleej's 129, a +76 gap at the 73rd percentile of gaps. This pressure translated into more entries into dangerous areas, with Abha recording 10 shots inside the box to Al Khaleej's 5, a +5 gap at the 76th percentile of gaps. While there were few shots on target in the match (5 in total, 12th percentile of joint volume), Abha was clearly ahead with 4 to Al Khaleej's 1, a +3 gap at the 78th percentile of gaps. Al Khaleej, however, was more productive in creating clear-cut scoring opportunities, making 4 big chances to Abha's 1, a +3 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps. Abha also found more success on the flanks, recording 3 accurate crosses to Al Khaleej's 1, a +2 gap at the 66th percentile of gaps. Defensively, Abha was more active in winning the ball back, recording 14 tackles to Al Khaleej's 8, a +6 gap at the 85th percentile of gaps, and 13 interceptions to Al Khaleej's 10, a +3 gap at the 77th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Abha win 35%, draw 35%, and Al Khaleej win 30%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-1 draw is a reflection of a wide-open game where Al Khaleej had 4 big chances to Abha's 1.