York City ضد Rotherham United — EFL Trophy

**York City 1-1 Rotherham United**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 74% of matches were more unusual than this one. The primary source of atypicality was the build-up, which accounted for 64% of the unusualness. Both teams were extremely patient in their own halves, completing 536 passes in total (99th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), with York City making 46 more passes in their own half than the other side (York City 291, Rotherham United 245, 67th percentile of gaps). Conversely, direct play was almost non-existent, as both sides combined for only 35 accurate long balls (6th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**How it played out:** The game was defined by a lack of direct threat, with only 3 shots on target in total (7th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). While the volume of attacking actions was low, York City was clearly ahead in terms of wide play, recording 5 more accurate crosses than Rotherham United (York City 5, Rotherham United 0, 87th percentile of gaps). York City also saw more corners than the other side (York City 8, Rotherham United 1, 94th percentile of gaps), despite there being few corners in the match (9 in total, 15th percentile of joint volume). Rotherham United focused on defensive positioning, recording 10 interceptions to York City's 5 (80th percentile of gaps, in a match with few interceptions overall, 15 in total). They also threw more bodies in front of shots, with Rotherham United making 4 more blocked shots than the other side (Rotherham United 6, York City 2, 84th percentile of gaps). On the ground, Rotherham United won 7 more ground duels than York City (Rotherham United 35, York City 28, 79th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are York City win 32%, draw 35%, and Rotherham United win 33%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-1 draw reflects a match where York City had 2 shots on target and Rotherham United had 1.