Chapecoense ضد Fluminense — Brasileirão

**Chapecoense 2-1 Fluminense**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 71% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (39%) and attack (34%). The disparity in territorial control was extreme: Fluminense made 402 passes in the opponent's half compared to Chapecoense's 86, a +316 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. This was mirrored in the final third where, despite only 11 shots inside the box in the match (3rd percentile of joint volume), Fluminense was clearly ahead with 10 to Chapecoense's 1, a gap at the 96th percentile. Furthermore, while there were few big chances in the match (3 in total, 23rd percentile of joint volume), Fluminense was clearly ahead with 2 to Chapecoense's 1, a gap at the 90th percentile.

**How it played out:** Fluminense utilized a patient build-up from the back, completing 274 passes in their own half to Chapecoense's 110, a +164 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. In contrast, Chapecoense looked to bypass the midfield, completing 27 accurate long balls to Fluminense's 15, a +12 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps, even though few accurate long balls were recorded in the match (42 in total, 11th percentile). Defensively, both sides were under significant pressure, recording 56 clearances in total (88th percentile of joint volume), with Chapecoense making 35 to Fluminense's 21, a +14 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps. Chapecoense also won more duels by challenging, with 15 tackles to Fluminense's 9, a +6 gap at the 85th percentile of gaps, in a match with few tackles overall (24 in total, 17th percentile). Fluminense found more success in one-on-one situations, recording 9 successful dribbles to Chapecoense's 2, a +7 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps, despite few successful dribbles in the match (11 in total, 11th percentile).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Chapecoense win 23%, draw 39%, and Fluminense win 38%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-1 scoreline reflects a match where Fluminense had more big chances (2 to 1) and more shots on target (4 to 3).