Águilas Doradas ضد Fortaleza FC — Colombian Primera A

**Águilas Doradas 1-0 Fortaleza FC**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 90% of matches were more unusual than this one. The most striking deviation was in the dribbling, where few successful dribbles were recorded overall (9 in total, 4th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Águilas Doradas was clearly ahead with 8 to Fortaleza FC's 1 (a +7 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps). Other areas of the game remained largely standard, with the unusualness distributed across duels (38%), attack (23%), build-up (22%), and defending (17%).

**How it played out:** Águilas Doradas found more success in direct play and sustained pressure. They were clearly ahead in shots on target (3 to 0) and in corners (3 to 0), despite few of either metric occurring in the match (3 corners in total, 5th percentile of the joint volume). They also won more ground duels (27 to 22, a +5 gap at the 73rd percentile of gaps) and made more tackles (14 to 10, a +4 gap at the 77th percentile of gaps). Fortaleza FC, however, was more effective at creating clear-cut scoring opportunities, as they were clearly ahead in big chances (2 to 0, a +2 gap at the 69th percentile of gaps). Defensively, Fortaleza FC was clearly ahead in interceptions (8 to 4, a +4 gap at the 74th percentile of gaps) in a game with few interceptions overall (12 in total, 12th percentile). Both sides were patient in their own halves, completing 372 passes in total (70th percentile of joint volume), while Águilas Doradas made 62 more passes in their own half than the other side (217 to 155, a +62 gap at the 74th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The performances leaned towards a draw (45%), but the actual result was far from unlikely (34%). The fair probabilities are Águilas Doradas win 34%, draw 45%, and Fortaleza FC win 21%.