Al-Sadd ضد Al Ahli — ACL Elite

**Al-Sadd 0-0 Al Ahli**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (91% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the attacking phase (40%), followed by defending (25%) and build-up (23%). Despite a low volume of shots inside the box in the match (10 in total, 7th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Al Ahli was clearly ahead with 8 to Al-Sadd's 2, a gap at the 89th percentile. Furthermore, Al Ahli was clearly ahead in the opponent's half with 179 passes to Al-Sadd's 94, a gap at the 83rd percentile, even though the joint volume of such passes was low (273 in total, 29th percentile).

**How it played out:** Al Ahli utilized a direct approach to bypass the midfield, recording 39 accurate long balls to Al-Sadd's 23, a gap at the 93rd percentile. This directness translated into a more frequent threat on goal, as Al Ahli made 6 shots on target to Al-Sadd's 3, a gap at the 83rd percentile. Al Ahli also created more clear-cut scoring opportunities, with 2 big chances compared to Al-Sadd's 1, a gap at the 89th percentile. Al-Sadd, meanwhile, looked to find space by taking more shots from distance (8 to Al Ahli's 6, a 69th percentile gap), contributing to a high joint volume of 14 attempts, which ranks at the 93rd percentile. Defensively, both sides were active in reading the game with 27 interceptions in total, a high volume at the 91st percentile. While Al-Sadd was clearly ahead in winning the ball back by challenging with 15 tackles to Al Ahli's 9, a gap at the 85th percentile, the physical battle in the air was minimal, with only 16 aerial duels won between the two teams, a low volume at the 11th percentile.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Al-Sadd win 22%, draw 33%, and Al Ahli win 45%. The performances leaned towards an Al Ahli win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With Al Ahli creating 2 big chances to Al-Sadd's 1, the draw remains a very plausible outcome.