Atalanta ضد Parma — Serie A

**Atalanta 0-3 Parma**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 79% of matches were more unusual than this one. The most striking anomaly was the lack of entries into the box, with only 18 shots inside the box in the match (11th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Atalanta was clearly ahead with 16 to Parma's 2 (98th percentile of gaps). The unusualness was primarily driven by build-up (39%) and defending (27%). This was evidenced by Atalanta camping in the opponent's half with 391 passes compared to Parma's 85 (99th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Atalanta sought to control the game through various channels, making 11 accurate crosses to Parma's 2 (98th percentile of gaps) and 8 corners to 4 (81st percentile of gaps). They also utilized direct play, completing 41 accurate long balls to Parma's 24 (92nd percentile of gaps), contributing to a high joint volume of 65 long balls (75th percentile). Parma, meanwhile, focused on a physical and reactive defensive game. They won 13 aerial duels to Atalanta's 10 (68th percentile of gaps) and made 24 tackles to 14 (93rd percentile of gaps). Parma was also under significant pressure, recording 45 clearances to Atalanta's 17 (95th percentile of gaps) and 5 blocked shots to Atalanta's 0 (90th percentile of gaps). In terms of individual actions, Atalanta won 11 dribbles to Parma's 4 (93rd percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Atalanta win 50%, draw 26%, and Parma win 24%. The performances pointed to an Atalanta win, but the actual result had only a 24% probability. This was despite Atalanta creating 4 big chances to Parma's 1.