Benfica ضد Alverca — Liga Portugal

**Benfica 1-0 Alverca**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 94% of matches were more unusual than this one. The slight atypicality was concentrated in the build-up and duels. Both teams were highly active in winning the ball back, recording 45 tackles in total (96th percentile of joint volume) with no real difference between them. Similarly, the game was very combative on the ground, with 93 ground duels won (96th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** Benfica was clearly ahead in territorial control, recording 284 passes in the opponent's half compared to Alverca's 79, a +205 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps, even though few passes in the opponent's half occurred in the match overall (363 in total, 30th percentile). Benfica also won more aerial duels, 18 to 8, a +10 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps, in a match where few aerial duels won occurred overall (26 in total, 29th percentile). Alverca focused on reading the game, recording 14 interceptions to Benfica's 10, a +4 gap at the 74th percentile of gaps. Both sides maintained sustained pressure near the goal, producing 13 corners in total (89th percentile of joint volume). Benfica also had a moderate edge in getting into dangerous areas, with 9 shots inside the box to Alverca's 4, a +5 gap at the 76th percentile of gaps. While few big chances occurred in the match, but Benfica was clearly ahead, recording 2 to Alverca's 0, a +2 gap at the 66th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Benfica win 29%, draw 41%, and Alverca win 30%. The performances leaned towards a draw, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With Benfica creating 2 big chances to Alverca's 0, the narrow victory was a plausible outcome.