Deportes Limache ضد Audax Italiano — Chilean Primera Division

**Deportes Limache 2-0 Audax Italiano**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (68% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was distributed evenly across the game, with attack, build-up, defending, and duels each accounting for roughly a quarter of the atypicality. Despite this, the volume of direct threats was significant, as both teams recorded 15 shots on target (91st percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Audax Italiano stood out in this area, recording 11 shots on target to Deportes Limache's 4, a gap at the 98th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** The attacking pressure was mirrored by a high volume of clear-cut scoring opportunities, with 7 big chances recorded (95th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Audax Italiano held a slight edge here with 4 big chances to 3 for Deportes Limache (94th percentile of gaps). Both sides bypassed the midfield frequently, completing 80 accurate long balls (98th percentile of the two teams' joint volume) with no real difference between them. Audax Italiano was more active down the flanks, making 10 accurate crosses to Deportes Limache's 3 (96th percentile of gaps). In terms of defensive work, both sides were under pressure, resulting in 61 clearances (92nd percentile of joint volume), with Deportes Limache making 39 to Audax Italiano's 22 (93rd percentile of gaps). While there were few tackles in the match, Audax Italiano was clearly ahead with 15 to 10. Audax Italiano also won more aerial duels, 21 to 11 (94th percentile of gaps), while Deportes Limache read the game better with 11 interceptions to 7 (82nd percentile of gaps). Finally, there were few successful dribbles in the match, but Audax Italiano was clearly ahead with 6 to 1 (85th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The performances pointed to a Audax Italiano win (47%), the actual result had only 24%. The fair probabilities are Deportes Limache win 24%, draw 29%, and Audax Italiano win 47%. With Audax Italiano recording 11 shots on target to 4, the result was a surprise given the statistical trends.