Tractor ضد Neftchi Fargona — ACL Elite

**Tractor 2-2 Neftchi Fargona**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (81% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking contrast appeared in the build-up from the back, where both teams completed a high volume of passes in their own half (470 in total, 93rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Tractor was significantly more active with 281 to Neftchi Fargona's 189 (a +92 gap at the 83rd percentile). Conversely, Neftchi Fargona was much more productive with their wide play, recording 8 accurate crosses to Tractor's 1 (a +7 gap at the 96th percentile) in a game where few accurate crosses were made overall (9 in total, 23rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**How it played out:** Neftchi Fargona took the initiative in the final third, completing 218 passes in the opponent's half compared to Tractor's 143 (a +75 gap at the 81st percentile of gaps). This territorial control translated into a more direct threat, as Neftchi Fargona made 8 shots on target to Tractor's 3 (a +5 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps) and created 4 big chances to Tractor's 2 (a +2 gap at the 92nd percentile of gaps). While few shots inside the box were recorded in the match (12 in total, 19th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Neftchi Fargona was clearly ahead with 9 to Tractor's 3 (a +6 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps). Tractor focused on defensive stability and physical presence, recording 12 interceptions to Neftchi Fargona's 6 (a +6 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps) and winning 36 ground duels to 27 (a +9 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps). In a match with few clearances overall (29 in total, 15th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Tractor was clearly ahead with 21 to Neftchi Fargona's 8 (a +13 gap at the 88th percentile of gaps). Both sides also opted for long-range attempts when the box was crowded, recording 15 shots from distance in total (91st percentile of the two teams' joint volume), with Neftchi Fargona making 10 to Tractor's 5 (a +5 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Tractor win 38%, draw 23%, and Neftchi Fargona win 39%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-2 draw reflects a wide open match where Neftchi Fargona had 4 big chances to Tractor's 2.