Independiente Medellín vs Bucaramanga — Colombian Primera A

**Independiente Medellín 1-2 Bucaramanga**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 84% of matches, with the unusualness primarily driven by the attacking phase (55%). The most striking figures come from the direct threat on goal, as both teams recorded 16 shots on target (79th percentile of joint volume), yet Independiente Medellín made 10 more than Bucaramanga (13 to 3, 99th percentile of gaps). Furthermore, while there were few shots inside the box overall (24 in total, 29th percentile of joint volume), Independiente Medellín was clearly ahead with 21 compared to Bucaramanga's 3 (100th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Independiente Medellín exerted sustained pressure near the opponent's goal, evidenced by 12 corners to Bucaramanga's 2 (98th percentile of gaps). They also found more ways into the final third, as there were few accurate crosses in the match, but Independiente Medellín was clearly ahead with 7 to 0 (94th percentile of gaps). On the defensive side, there were few tackles in the match, but Independiente Medellín was clearly ahead with 13 to 8 (82nd percentile of gaps). Conversely, Bucaramanga focused on reading the game, as there were few interceptions in the match, but Bucaramanga was clearly ahead with 11 to 4 (89th percentile of gaps). Bucaramanga also threw more bodies in front of shots, recording 6 blocks to Independiente Medellín's 1 (90th percentile of gaps). In the physical battle, there were few ground duels won in the match, but Independiente Medellín was clearly ahead with 30 to 24 (76th percentile of gaps), while also recording 10 successful dribbles to Bucaramanga's 6 (81st percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Independiente Medellín win 45%, draw 40%, and Bucaramanga win 15%. The performances pointed toward an Independiente Medellín win, but the actual result had only a 15% probability. With 13 shots on target for Independiente Medellín compared to 3 for Bucaramanga, the result was a significant outlier to the statistical trend.