Red Star vs Guingamp — Ligue 2

**Red Star 3-2 Guingamp**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 97% of matches in the database, with the atypicality concentrated in build-up (30%), defending (29%), and attack (23%). The most striking contrast lies in the set pieces: few corners were taken in the match (8 in total, 5th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Guingamp was clearly ahead with 8 to Red Star's 0, a gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. Territorial control also showed a massive disparity: few passes in the opponent's half were recorded (243 in total, 10th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Guingamp was clearly ahead with 167 to Red Star's 76, a gap at the 85th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Guingamp's approach was defined by a patient build-up from the back, completing 251 passes in their own half compared to Red Star's 109, a gap at the 94th percentile of gaps. While the match saw few shots from distance (6 in total, 4th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Guingamp was clearly ahead with 6 to Red Star's 0, a gap at the 94th percentile of gaps. Red Star, meanwhile, focused on winning the ball back by challenging, making 23 tackles to Guingamp's 11, a gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. They also had a small edge in reading the game, making 8 interceptions to Guingamp's 3, a gap at the 86th percentile of gaps, in a match with few interceptions overall (11 in total, 6th percentile). Both sides were under pressure, recording a high volume of blocked shots (9 in total, 92nd percentile of joint volume), with Red Star making 5 to Guingamp's 4. Red Star also won more one-on-one battles, with 11 successful dribbles to Guingamp's 4, a gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps, and won more ground duels, 49 to 37, a gap at the 92nd percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Red Star win 37%, draw 40%, and Guingamp win 23%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 3-2 scoreline reflects a wide-open contest where both sides produced 3 big chances each.