Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg — 3. Liga

**Erzgebirge Aue 0-0 MSV Duisburg**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 71% of matches, with the atypicality concentrated in defending (35%), attack (31%), and build-up (27%). The most striking contrast appeared in the final third: few shots inside the box were recorded in the match (19 in total, 27th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but MSV Duisburg was clearly ahead with 16 to Erzgebirge Aue's 3 (99th percentile of gaps). Conversely, Erzgebirge Aue was clearly ahead in direct play, making 23 accurate long balls to MSV Duisburg's 13 (79th percentile of gaps), despite only 36 accurate long balls in the match (4th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** Erzgebirge Aue faced significant pressure, evidenced by making 39 clearances to MSV Duisburg's 12 (98th percentile of gaps) and 8 blocked shots to 1 (99th percentile of gaps). They also read the game well, recording 14 interceptions to MSV Duisburg's 5 (96th percentile of gaps). MSV Duisburg found more ways to pressure the goal, recording 7 corners to Erzgebirge Aue's 1 (93rd percentile of gaps) and 6 accurate crosses to 0 (94th percentile of gaps), even though only 6 accurate crosses were made in the match (8th percentile of joint volume). Both sides were highly active in winning the ball back, recording 20 and 19 tackles respectively (87th percentile of joint volume). The game was also physical in the air, with 37 aerial duels won overall (71st percentile of joint volume), and Erzgebirge Aue won 21 to MSV Duisburg's 16 (80th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Erzgebirge Aue win 51%, draw 28%, and MSV Duisburg win 21%. The performances leaned towards a Erzgebirge Aue win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With only 1 big chance for Erzgebirge Aue and 0 for MSV Duisburg, the stalemate was a logical conclusion.