Chivas vs Toluca — Liga MX

**Chivas 0-2 Toluca**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 72% of matches were more unusual than this one. The primary source of atypicality was found in the build-up, which accounted for 62% of the unusualness. Toluca bypassed the midfield with 47 accurate long balls compared to Chivas's 17, a +30 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. In contrast, Chivas generated sustained pressure near the opponent's goal, recording 9 corners to Toluca's 2, a +7 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Toluca was the more active side in the final third, recording 9 shots on target to Chivas's 4, a +5 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps. While both teams were proficient at getting into dangerous areas with 10 shots inside the box each, Toluca was much more effective at creating clear-cut scoring opportunities, finding 5 big chances to Chivas's 1, a +4 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps. Toluca also maintained superior territorial control, completing 242 passes in the opponent's half compared to Chivas's 142, a +100 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps. Chivas was clearly ahead in the air with 6 accurate crosses to Toluca's 1, despite a match with few accurate crosses overall (7 in total, 20th percentile of joint volume). Defensively, Toluca was more active in cutting passing lanes with 13 interceptions to Chivas's 10, while also recording 28 clearances to Chivas's 15, a +13 gap at the 76th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Chivas win 6%, draw 21%, and Toluca win 73%. The performances pointed to a Toluca win and that is what happened, with Toluca creating 5 big chances to Chivas's 1.