Boca Juniors vs Vélez Sarsfield — Liga Profesional

**Boca Juniors 1-1 Vélez Sarsfield**

**What set this match apart:** A very typical match: only small details set it apart (72% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was concentrated primarily in the attacking phase (57% of the unusualness). Both teams took a high volume of shots from distance, totaling 19 (95th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), with Boca Juniors making 14 and Vélez Sarsfield 5 (a +9 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps). Despite this, few shots inside the box were recorded overall (19 in total, 27th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**How it played out:** Boca Juniors was clearly ahead in terms of getting into dangerous areas, recording 16 shots inside the box compared to just 3 for Vélez Sarsfield (a +13 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps). This translated into more clear-cut scoring opportunities, as Boca Juniors created 5 big chances to Vélez Sarsfield's 1 (a +4 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps). In terms of territorial control, both sides camped in the opponent's half with 416 passes in total (94th percentile of joint volume), but Boca Juniors made 268 of those compared to 148 for Vélez Sarsfield (a +120 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps). While few accurate crosses were made in the match (8 in total, 21st percentile of joint volume), Boca Juniors was clearly ahead with 7 to Vélez Sarsfield's 1 (a +6 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps). Defensively, both teams were active in winning the ball back by challenging, recording 21 and 20 tackles respectively (41 in total, 91st percentile of joint volume). Boca Juniors also read the game better with 14 interceptions to 8 (a +6 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps), while Vélez Sarsfield faced more pressure, recording 32 clearances to Boca Juniors' 16 (a +16 gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps). Finally, Boca Juniors won the physical battle in the air, taking 20 aerial duels won to Vélez Sarsfield's 12 (a +8 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Boca Juniors win 40%, draw 44%, and Vélez Sarsfield win 16%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-1 draw is a reflection of a wide-open match where Boca Juniors had 8 shots on target to Vélez Sarsfield's 4.