Bandırmaspor vs Antalyaspor — Türkiye 1. Lig

**Bandırmaspor 0-1 Antalyaspor**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 80% of matches were more unusual than this one. The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the duels (40%), build-up (29%), and defending (26%). Antalyaspor won the battle of one-on-one situations, completing 4 successful dribbles to Bandırmaspor's 0, a +4 gap at the 80th percentile of gaps in a match where only 4 dribbles were completed in total (1st percentile of joint volume). Conversely, Bandırmaspor won the physical battle on the ground, winning 29 ground duels to Antalyaspor's 21, a +8 gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps in a game with only 50 ground duels won overall (5th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** Bandırmaspor controlled the territory and the aerial space, making 222 passes in the opponent's half to Antalyaspor's 73, a +149 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps in a match with few such passes overall (14th percentile of joint volume). They also won 17 aerial duels to Antalyaspor's 8, a +9 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps in a game with few aerial duels won overall (26th percentile of joint volume). Antalyaspor, however, spent more time defending deep and clearing the ball, making 28 clearances to Bandırmaspor's 8, a +20 gap at the 88th percentile of gaps in a match with few clearances overall (19th percentile of joint volume). Bandırmaspor also showed patience in their own half, making 212 passes compared to Antalyaspor's 108, a +104 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps. While Bandırmaspor was clearly ahead in big chances with 2 to Antalyaspor's 0, the overall volume of clear-cut scoring opportunities was low (28th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Bandırmaspor win 32%, draw 38%, and Antalyaspor win 30%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 0-1 scoreline reflects a wide-open contest where Bandırmaspor had 4 shots on target to Antalyaspor's 3.