Stoke City vs Norwich City — Championship

**Stoke City 1-0 Norwich City**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 72% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by defending (40%) and build-up (37%). The most striking feature was the lack of direct play, as both teams recorded very few accurate long balls (Stoke City 14, Norwich City 15; 29 in total, 1st percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Despite this, the teams were active in their own halves: few passes in their own half occurred in the match (264 in total, 11th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Norwich City made 124 more than the other side (Norwich City 194, Stoke City 70, 91st percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Norwich City also held a significant advantage in territorial control, making 203 more passes in the opponent's half than Stoke City (Norwich City 261, Stoke City 58, 97th percentile of gaps), even though few passes in the opponent's half were recorded overall (319 in total, 5th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Stoke City faced significant pressure, evidenced by making 16 more clearances than Norwich City (Stoke City 43, Norwich City 27, 92nd percentile of gaps) and 5 more blocked shots (Stoke City 6, Norwich City 1, 97th percentile of gaps). Both sides were active in winning the ball back, recording 41 tackles in total (90th percentile of joint volume), with Stoke City making 3 more than Norwich City (Stoke City 22, Norwich City 19, 72nd percentile of gaps). Norwich City created a more direct threat on goal, making 4 more shots on target than the other side (Norwich City 6, Stoke City 2, 89th percentile of gaps). Stoke City found success in one-on-one situations, making 4 more successful dribbles than Norwich City (Stoke City 9, Norwich City 5, 81st percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Stoke City win 33%, draw 42%, and Norwich City win 25%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-0 result is not surprising given that Norwich City had 3 big chances to Stoke City's 2.