Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League

**Kashiwa Reysol 1-3 Nagoya Grampus**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 78% of matches were more unusual than this one. The slight atypicality was concentrated in defending, build-up, and duels, while the attacking metrics remained standard. Nagoya Grampus was clearly ahead in blocked shots, recording 6 to Kashiwa Reysol's 0, despite a match with few blocked shots (defending) overall (6 in total, 22nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Furthermore, Nagoya Grampus was clearly ahead in interceptions, recording 16 to Kashiwa Reysol's 5, a +11 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Kashiwa Reysol exerted significant territorial control, completing 258 passes in the opponent's half compared to Nagoya Grampus's 120, a +138 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps. This pressure was reflected in their 7 corners to Nagoya Grampus's 2, a +5 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps. However, Kashiwa Reysol also spent a lot of time building from the back, making 249 passes in their own half to Nagoya Grampus's 207, a +42 gap at the 66th percentile of gaps. Nagoya Grampus responded with a more combative defensive stance, making 34 clearances to Kashiwa Reysol's 20, a +14 gap at the 78th percentile of gaps. In the duels, Kashiwa Reysol won 21 aerial duels to Nagoya Grampus's 13, a +8 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps, while Kashiwa Reysol was clearly ahead in dribbles, recording 4 to Nagoya Grampus's 2, a +2 gap at the 68th percentile of gaps, in a match with few successful dribbles overall (6 in total, 7th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Nagoya Grampus was clearly ahead in ground duels, winning 31 to Kashiwa Reysol's 23, a +8 gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps, in a match with few ground duels won overall (54 in total, 11th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Kashiwa Reysol also looked for long-range attempts, making 8 shots from distance to Nagoya Grampus's 3, a +5 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Kashiwa Reysol win 14%, draw 32%, and Nagoya Grampus win 54%. The performances pointed to a Nagoya Grampus win and that is what happened, with the side securing 3 big chances to Kashiwa Reysol's 1.