Sarmiento contre Estudiantes de Río Cuarto — Liga Profesional

**Sarmiento 1-0 Estudiantes de Río Cuarto**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 73% of matches were more unusual than this one. The primary source of atypicality was found in the duels, which accounted for 53% of the unusualness. While the game was physically intense, the most striking contrast was in the dribbling: few successful dribbles occurred in the match overall (16 in total, 27th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Sarmiento was clearly ahead with 13 to Estudiantes de Río Cuarto's 3 (a +10 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** The match was defined by a high volume of physical contests and defensive pressure. Both teams won a great many ground duels (83 in total, 86th percentile of joint volume) and aerial duels (48 in total, 89th percentile of joint volume), with Estudiantes de Río Cuarto winning 45 to 38 on the ground and 27 to 21 in the air. This physical battle led to a massive amount of defensive work, as both sides recorded 67 clearances (98th percentile of joint volume), with Sarmiento making 35 to Estudiantes de Río Cuarto's 32. Estudiantes de Río Cuarto also threw more bodies in front of shots, recording 4 blocks to Sarmiento's 1 (a +3 gap at the 76th percentile of gaps). Despite this pressure, the attacking output was limited, with only 2 big chances in total (20th percentile of joint volume). Both sides pushed for corners (14 in total, 94th percentile of joint volume) and accurate crosses (10 in total, 80th percentile of joint volume), with Estudiantes de Río Cuarto leading in both categories.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Sarmiento win 32%, draw 41%, and Estudiantes de Río Cuarto win 27%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-0 result is not surprising, as both sides recorded exactly 1 big chance each.