San Lorenzo contre Vélez Sarsfield — Liga Profesional

**San Lorenzo 0-0 Vélez Sarsfield**

**What set this match apart:** This was a fairly ordinary match with a few distinctive traits (57% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking contrast appeared in long-range attempts, where San Lorenzo made 9 shots from distance to Vélez Sarsfield's 2, a +7 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps. Conversely, while there were few shots inside the box in the match (11 in total, 17th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Vélez Sarsfield was clearly ahead with 8 to San Lorenzo's 3, a gap at the 86th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Both sides were active in the opponent's half, completing 319 passes between them (76th percentile of joint volume) with no real difference in distribution. Build-up from the back was patient and safe, as both teams recorded few passes in their own half (243 in total, 19th percentile of joint volume). Vélez Sarsfield looked to exploit the flanks, making 7 accurate crosses to San Lorenzo's 3, a gap at the 87th percentile of gaps. San Lorenzo found more success in one-on-one situations, recording 9 successful dribbles to Vélez Sarsfield's 4, a +5 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps. Defensively, both teams were under constant pressure, evidenced by a high volume of clearances (62 in total, 94th percentile of joint volume), with Vélez Sarsfield making 38 to San Lorenzo's 24, a +14 gap at the 78th percentile of gaps. Few blocked shots (defending) occurred in the match (3 in total, 30th percentile of joint volume), but San Lorenzo was clearly ahead with 2 to Vélez Sarsfield's 1, a gap at the 77th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are San Lorenzo win 19%, draw 44%, and Vélez Sarsfield win 37%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 0-0 draw is not surprising, despite Vélez Sarsfield creating 2 big chances to San Lorenzo's 1.