Estoril contre Benfica — Liga Portugal

**Estoril 1-3 Benfica**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 64% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the attacking phase (42%) and the build-up (29%). Both teams were extremely active in the final third, recording 27 shots inside the box (99th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), with Benfica making 15 to Estoril's 12. Furthermore, the teams bypassed the midfield frequently, recording a very low volume of accurate long balls (30 in total, 2nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume) with no real difference between them.

**How it played out:** Benfica exerted significant pressure near the opponent's goal, evidenced by 9 corners to Estoril's 2 (96th percentile of gaps). This territorial control was supported by a high volume of passes in the opponent's half (381 in total, 93rd percentile of joint volume), where Benfica made 219 to Estoril's 162. While both sides were active down the flanks with 11 accurate crosses in total (88th percentile of joint volume), Estoril was forced into a more defensive posture. This was reflected in the fact that Estoril made 28 clearances to Benfica's 9 (94th percentile of gaps) and 5 blocked shots to 2 (91st percentile of gaps) in a match with few clearances overall (37 in total, 26th percentile of joint volume). In the air, Benfica won 12 aerial duels to Estoril's 5 (87th percentile of gaps), despite only 17 duels being won in the match overall (8th percentile of joint volume). Ultimately, Benfica were more productive in front of goal, creating 6 big chances to Estoril's 1 (98th percentile of gaps) and recording 8 shots on target to 6.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Estoril win 21%, draw 27%, and Benfica win 52%. The performances pointed to a Benfica win and that is what happened. With Benfica creating 6 big chances to Estoril's 1, the result was deserved.